Each episode logs exactly one falsifiable claim: a named metric, a comparison, a threshold and a resolution date. On that date the claim is scored automatically against the archived snapshot for that day — not a fresh lookup — and the result is published here whether it was right or wrong.
| Status | Claim | Rule | Made | Resolves | Observed | Audience |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIT | Indigo's book-wide collateral ratio holds above 2.25x for a week | indigo_book_ratio > 2.248 | 2026-09-21 | 2026-09-28 | 2.3889 | — |
| HIT | our own cascade model still lands within one position on more than 74 percent of scored pairs seven days from now | cascade_within_one_pct > 74.2 | 2026-09-20 | 2026-09-27 | 90 | — |
| HIT | USDCx is still in the top-5 most active Cardano tokens by on-chain tx count seven days from now (measured 89 this window) | token_flow_top5_present >= 1 | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-26 | 1 | — |
| HIT | less than 0.09 percent of Cardano's native-token market cap is exitable at ten percent impact seven days from now | cnt_ecosystem_mirage_frac < 0.000912 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-25 | 0.0005 | — |
| HIT | iUSD supply stays above 1.3 million for a week | iusd_supply > 1,323,208 | 2026-09-17 | 2026-09-24 | 1,375,327.3679 | — |
| HIT | no more than 11 CDPs sit below a 1.20 ratio seven days from now | indigo_at_risk_120 <= 11 | 2026-09-16 | 2026-09-23 | 3 | — |
| HIT | Indigo TVL is above $3.94M seven days from now | indigo_tvl_usd > 3,938,474 | 2026-09-15 | 2026-09-22 | 4,482,300 | — |
| HIT | Indigo's book-wide collateral ratio holds above 2.10x for a week | indigo_book_ratio > 2.095 | 2026-09-14 | 2026-09-21 | 2.3661 | — |
| VOID | hvMIN is still in the top-5 most active Cardano tokens by on-chain tx count seven days from now (measured 583 this window) | token_flow_top5_present >= 1 | 2026-09-12 | 2026-09-19 | 0 | — |
| MISS | hvMIN is still in the top-5 most active Cardano tokens by on-chain tx count seven days from now (measured 583 this window) | token_flow_top5_present >= 1 | 2026-09-12 | 2026-09-19 | 0 | — |
| HIT | iUSD supply stays above 1.3 million for a week | iusd_supply > 1,336,790 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-18 | 1,361,437.6101 | — |
| MISS | iUSD supply stays above 1.4 million for a week | iusd_supply > 1,381,123 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-17 | 1,364,131.6024 | — |
| MISS | no more than 3 CDPs sit below a 1.20 ratio seven days from now | indigo_at_risk_120 <= 3 | 2026-09-09 | 2026-09-16 | 9 | — |
| OPEN | ADA closes above $0.2456 seven days from now | ada_price_usd > 0.2456 | 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-29 | — | — |
| OPEN | Indigo TVL is below $4.44M seven days from now, 2 percent below today's level | indigo_tvl_usd < 4,436,191 | 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-30 | — | — |
| OPEN | Cardano's dollar stablecoins total more than $68.26M seven days from now, 2.3 percent above today | stable_dollar_supply_usd > 68,259,635 | 2026-09-24 | 2026-10-01 | — | — |
| OPEN | more than 1,308,410 stake accounts are delegating seven days from now, up from today | staking_delegators > 1,308,410 | 2026-09-25 | 2026-10-02 | — | — |
| OPEN | more than 66.0 percent of Cardano blocks still carry a script seven days from now | block_script_share_pct > 66 | 2026-09-26 | 2026-10-03 | — | — |
| OPEN | ADA closes above $0.2599 seven days from now, 3.9 percent above where it is today | ada_price_usd > 0.2599 | 2026-09-27 | 2026-10-04 | — | — |
| OPEN | deposits across Liqwid's markets are above today's $22.86M seven days from now | liqwid_supply_usd > 22,860,695 | 2026-09-28 | 2026-10-05 | — | — |
| OPEN | ADA closes below $0.2053 30 days from now | ada_price_usd < 0.2053 | 2026-09-13 | 2026-10-13 | — | — |
| OPEN | ADA closes above $0.2278 30 days from now | ada_price_usd > 0.2278 | 2026-09-20 | 2026-10-20 | — | — |
| OPEN | Cardano's dollar stablecoins total more than $68.81M 30 days from now, 2.9 percent above today, measured as the median of the last three days | stable_dollar_supply_usd_med3 > 68,813,032 | 2026-09-27 | 2026-10-27 | — | — |
| Published | Title | Video | Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28T07:56 | Cardano DeFi lending: Liqwid deposits at $22.86M across 31 markets | video | data |
| 2026-09-28T00:03 | Cardano DeFi: Measuring Strike Finance's 6.81M USD daily trade | video | data |
| 2026-09-27T18:08 | Cardano, measured: the week in on-chain numbers — Sep 27 | video | data |
| 2026-09-26T15:47 | Cardano network: Average block size is 10% full | video | data |
| 2026-09-25T07:51 | Cardano staking: 21.4 billion ADA delegated | video | data |
| 2026-09-24T07:49 | Cardano stablecoins: $66.7M in circulation and who issued them | video | data |
| 2026-09-23T07:24 | 70.3% of Rationale Links Still Resolving: Our Method | video | data |
| 2026-09-22T08:59 | Cardano block compute hits 96.4 percent at peak | video | data |
| 2026-09-21T08:44 | Price shift of 8.8 percent: what the chain recorded | video | data |
| 2026-09-20T20:01 | Cardano, measured: the week in on-chain numbers — Sep 20 | video | data |
| 2026-09-20T08:16 | 307 on-chain positions: the measurement method | video | data |
| 2026-09-19T08:27 | ADA at $0.2267: What moved since last episode | video | data |
| 2026-09-18T08:20 | The 6.2% shift: Measuring ADA's daily change on-chain | video | data |
| 2026-09-17T08:23 | 42% drop needed to hit half the book at risk | video | data |
| 2026-09-16T08:35 | Measuring ADA's 40% drawdown buffer on the ledger | video | data |
| 2026-09-15T07:20 | 24% ADA Drop Before Tenth Book Is At Risk | video | data |
| 2026-09-14T08:49 | ADA would have to fall 46% before half of Indigo liquidates — Sep 14 | video | data |
| 2026-09-13T17:20 | Measuring the 44% buffer in Cardano's on-chain loan collateral ratios | video | data |
| 2026-09-12T17:15 | Tracking the 0.162% reserve decay rate per epoch | video | data |
| 2026-09-12T16:28 | Indigo TVL Sits At $4.0M Today | video | data |
| 2026-09-11T17:16 | 44% Drop Required: The Risk Floor in Cardano's Loan Book | video | data |
| 2026-09-10T07:12 | ADA would have to fall 46% before half of Indigo liquidates — Sep 10 | video | data |
| 2026-09-09T18:44 | ADA would have to fall 46% before half of Indigo liquidates — Sep 9 | video | data |
The full current snapshot — every figure behind the latest episode — is at
data/latest.json. Per-episode records are linked above.
Figures are computed from a local Cardano node and a full cardano-db-sync
database; the Indigo CDP book is decoded from the v2 CDP validator's inline datums and
reconciled against chain-wide mint history before anything is reported.